It’s Just Iowa
Posted by Clark Bunch on January 7, 2012
I’m not saying the Iowa caucus results do not matter. Michelle Bachman is ending her campaign after taking only 5% of the vote. I’m saying some things have to be taken with a grain of salt. While the results tell us some things, they must be kept in perspective. Here’s some perspective:
In 2008, Mike Huckabee won in the Iowa caucus and John McCain finished in 4th place.
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Brian said
Here’s an interesting bit of historical info. Recent history anyway. Since 1976 six sitting Presidents have run for re-election (Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush…..and I know technically speaking Ford wasn’t running for RE-election since he was never actually elected President or Vice President). Of those 6, 3 had primary challengers…..Ford had Reagan in 1976, Carter had Ted Kennedy in 1980 and the first Bush had Pat Buchanan in 1992. The other 3, Reagan in 1984, Clinton im 1996, and the second Bush in 2004 did not have primary challengers. Notice the pattern? Those who were challenged within their party lost the general election, those who were not challenged within their own party won the general election.
Obama is the sitting President and he has no challenger. If recent history holds true Obama will be re-elected this November.
Clark Bunch said
A year ago I would have said Obama had no chance of reelection. Since then, bin Laden was killed, our troops pulled out of Iraq, and the unemployment situation has improved slightly. If Ron Paul were to get the Rep. nomination (he won’t) there is no way Obama could loose. Republicans need a candidate conservative enough to get the nomination that can then dance to the center enough by November to get elected. If they don’t all rip each other to shreds before then. Republicans these days do more damage to one another than the other party could ever do.
Brian said
My prediction (which with a nickel will get you a hot cup of JACK SQUAT) is that Obama will win re-election (though by a smaller margin than he won with in 2008) and that the Republicans will retain control of the House and take control of the Senate.
Clark Bunch said
We have a U.S. History teacher here that likes it that way. Let me rephrase that: in 2010 he was wanted Republicans to take control of Congress so that with a Democrat president they could not pass anything together. Whichever party is in the White House he wants the other to control Congress.
I know say “my opinion, that and $4 will get you a cup of coffee.”
Brian said
So basically he prefers gridlock to bipartisanship? I lean that way myself.